Many LDS will close,as they are doing right now.The larger ones will be few and far inbetween..A decent LDS in the NY aea here in Westchester can cost 1 to 2 million to open.That is a facility with sales floor,classroom,indoor heated pool and inventory.Not too many want to place such an investment in such a market.Better off to open a Dunkin Donut franchise and get better return on the dollar.Even a very small mom and popstore can cost $150,000 to open with very limited inventory.
The rate of $1,000. per student only comes out to about $50. an hour pay to the independent instructor. I know of pools that charge $50. a hour .Typical ow course needs minimum of 7-8 hrs of pool time..Still have to pay for gear used at the pool,air,pool time,insurance,all out of that lousy $50. an hour.not very much money left after those expenses.
Training agencies will do/can do nothing to remain viable.Less facilities to teach,less certifications/materials to sell.Member fees will go up,insurance costs will go up because of a smaller pool of insured to pay.Scuba is a speciality market and will not grow or even exist without LDS around to offer training and services.